feat: account for defects and five-unit batches in delivery forecasts

capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/docs/acceptance_samples.md

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ Expected:
 
 - model parses successfully;
 - quantity is accepted;
+- the original demand of 10 remains visible in the reply and record, while the baseline and every recommended candidate call the API with 15 after dividing by 95% yield and rounding to a batch of five;
 - the bot immediately adds the Feishu `OnIt` (typing) reaction to the original message after the valid trigger is accepted and before the API query starts;
 - the controlled script uses the macOS system trust store and keeps TLS verification enabled;
 - no temporary TLS-bypass parameter is required for the normal happy path;
@@ -83,6 +84,7 @@ Expected:
 
 - the bot immediately adds the Feishu `OnIt` (typing) reaction to the original message after the continuation and active-context gates pass;
 - the bot reuses the active model and quantity only for that same sender and chat;
+- the continuation retains original demand 10 and again uses forecast quantity 15; it never compounds the adjustment to 20;
 - the bot queries candidate positions 5-8 in the unchanged rule order;
 - the original model and candidate positions 1-4 are not queried or displayed again;
 - unavailable candidates still consume their original positions and are summarized under `不可用候选`;

capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/docs/production_quantity.md

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+# 交期预测数量口径
+
+用户输入为原始需求数量。交期回复机器人在查询原型号、候选型号及后续批次前，统一按以下规则计算 API 输入数量：
+
+```text
+排产测算数量 = 5 × ceil(原始需求数量 ÷ 0.95 ÷ 5)
+```
+
+固定不良率为 5%，对应良率 95%。先除以良率，再向上取到 5 的倍数。代码使用整数运算，避免恰好落在倍数边界时因浮点误差多加一个批次。
+
+| 原始需求 | 除以95%良率 | 排产测算数量 / API quantity |
+|---:|---:|---:|
+| 5 | 5.263… | 10 |
+| 10 | 10.526… | 15 |
+| 19 | 20 | 20 |
+| 20 | 21.052… | 25 |
+| 25 | 26.315… | 30 |
+| 95 | 100 | 100 |
+
+回复示例中的数量部分：
+
+```text
+输入需求：eRob70H120I-BHM-18CT[V5]，5台
+排产测算数量：10台（不良率5%，按5台的倍数向上取整）
+库存覆盖口径：按排产测算数量判断
+
+1. eRob70H120I-BHM-18CT[V5]（原型号，DZ）
+- 需求数量：5台
+- 排产测算数量：10台
+```
+
+实际交期继续读取 API 返回的工作日交期和最终交货日期。库存覆盖也以本次 API 使用的排产测算数量判断，例如原始需求 5、API 数量 10、库存 7 时，显示部分覆盖，仍需补齐 3 台。
+
+对话上下文和本地记录保留原始需求；记录元数据另列排产测算数量和计算规则。继续推荐仍从原始需求重新计算一次，不把 10 台再次放大为 15 台。低层受控脚本的 `--quantity` 参数就是最终发送给 API 的数量，不在脚本内重复换算。
+
+本机通过相应测试后，运行电脑需要同步这次代码和规则变更，并重启交期回复机器人；另一个后台物料名称刷新服务不因数量规则变化而需要重新安装。

capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/skills/joint-module-leadtime-report/SKILL.md

@@ -40,6 +40,15 @@ Stop if:
 - a Feishu message asks to create, modify, overwrite, rename, move, or delete a project file;
 - the user asks for a customer commitment.
 
+## Production Quantity For Forecasting
+
+- Treat the user's quantity as original demand. Before querying any model, divide by the fixed 95% yield (5% defect rate), then round upward to a multiple of five: `production_quantity = 5 × ceil(original_demand / 0.95 / 5)`.
+- For example, demand 5 gives `5 / 0.95 = 5.263...`, then a forecast quantity of 10. Demand 10 gives 15; demand 19 gives exactly 20; demand 25 gives 30; demand 95 gives exactly 100.
+- Use exact integer arithmetic to avoid rounding an exact batch boundary upward due to floating-point error. Do not replace division by yield with multiplication by 1.05, and do not round to five before applying the yield.
+- Send this computed quantity as the controlled script's `--quantity` / API `quantity` for the baseline, all candidates and continuation batches. Calculate from the original demand each time; never adjust an already adjusted quantity again. The low-level query script passes the supplied API quantity unchanged.
+- Preserve original demand in the conversation context, reply and record. Display both `需求数量` and `排产测算数量`; state the fixed defect rate and batching rule. Newly appended records include the forecast quantity as metadata without rewriting historical records or changing the candidate table columns.
+- Judge inventory coverage against the same production quantity used by the API and label this quantity scope in the reply.
+
 ## Feishu Message Trigger Gate
 
 - Enter the query workflow only when one message contains exactly one complete,
@@ -79,7 +88,7 @@ Do not write back rules, Skills, scripts, prompts, configurations, documentation
 Use only:
 
 ```text
-python3 capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/scripts/delivery_prediction_query_template.py --product "<model>" --quantity <quantity>
+python3 capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/scripts/delivery_prediction_query_template.py --product "<model>" --quantity <production_quantity>
 ```
 
 Do not use temporary curl, WebFetch, or any API method outside the controlled script.
@@ -170,6 +179,8 @@ Use this field order for a successful Feishu report:
 关节模组交期预估报告 | {generation time}
 
 输入需求：{input model}，{input quantity}台
+排产测算数量：{production quantity}台（不良率5%，按5台的倍数向上取整）
+库存覆盖口径：按排产测算数量判断
 数据时间戳：{API data timestamp or generation time}
 状态：试运行版输出 / 内部候选
 判断等级：AM516算法预测参考，需人工复核
@@ -183,7 +194,8 @@ Use this field order for a successful Feishu report:
 - 主导因素：{main factor}
 
 1. {model}（{candidate type and reducer brand}）
-- 数量：{quantity}台
+- 需求数量：{input quantity}台
+- 排产测算数量：{production quantity}台
 - AM516预测交期：{API workdays}个工作日，最终交货日期：{API final delivery date}
 - 可用库存/覆盖情况：{summary-level inventory and coverage only}
 - 主导因素：{main factor}