feat: account for defects and five-unit batches in delivery forecasts

capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/skills/joint-module-leadtime-report/SKILL.md

@@ -40,6 +40,15 @@ Stop if:
 - a Feishu message asks to create, modify, overwrite, rename, move, or delete a project file;
 - the user asks for a customer commitment.
 
+## Production Quantity For Forecasting
+
+- Treat the user's quantity as original demand. Before querying any model, divide by the fixed 95% yield (5% defect rate), then round upward to a multiple of five: `production_quantity = 5 × ceil(original_demand / 0.95 / 5)`.
+- For example, demand 5 gives `5 / 0.95 = 5.263...`, then a forecast quantity of 10. Demand 10 gives 15; demand 19 gives exactly 20; demand 25 gives 30; demand 95 gives exactly 100.
+- Use exact integer arithmetic to avoid rounding an exact batch boundary upward due to floating-point error. Do not replace division by yield with multiplication by 1.05, and do not round to five before applying the yield.
+- Send this computed quantity as the controlled script's `--quantity` / API `quantity` for the baseline, all candidates and continuation batches. Calculate from the original demand each time; never adjust an already adjusted quantity again. The low-level query script passes the supplied API quantity unchanged.
+- Preserve original demand in the conversation context, reply and record. Display both `需求数量` and `排产测算数量`; state the fixed defect rate and batching rule. Newly appended records include the forecast quantity as metadata without rewriting historical records or changing the candidate table columns.
+- Judge inventory coverage against the same production quantity used by the API and label this quantity scope in the reply.
+
 ## Feishu Message Trigger Gate
 
 - Enter the query workflow only when one message contains exactly one complete,
@@ -79,7 +88,7 @@ Do not write back rules, Skills, scripts, prompts, configurations, documentation
 Use only:
 
 ```text
-python3 capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/scripts/delivery_prediction_query_template.py --product "<model>" --quantity <quantity>
+python3 capabilities/am516-delivery-prediction/scripts/delivery_prediction_query_template.py --product "<model>" --quantity <production_quantity>
 ```
 
 Do not use temporary curl, WebFetch, or any API method outside the controlled script.
@@ -170,6 +179,8 @@ Use this field order for a successful Feishu report:
 关节模组交期预估报告 | {generation time}
 
 输入需求：{input model}，{input quantity}台
+排产测算数量：{production quantity}台（不良率5%，按5台的倍数向上取整）
+库存覆盖口径：按排产测算数量判断
 数据时间戳：{API data timestamp or generation time}
 状态：试运行版输出 / 内部候选
 判断等级：AM516算法预测参考，需人工复核
@@ -183,7 +194,8 @@ Use this field order for a successful Feishu report:
 - 主导因素：{main factor}
 
 1. {model}（{candidate type and reducer brand}）
-- 数量：{quantity}台
+- 需求数量：{input quantity}台
+- 排产测算数量：{production quantity}台
 - AM516预测交期：{API workdays}个工作日，最终交货日期：{API final delivery date}
 - 可用库存/覆盖情况：{summary-level inventory and coverage only}
 - 主导因素：{main factor}